Why Portugal Slammed the Door on Prediction Betting

In the hours before Portugal’s presidential election results were announced, millions of Euros flowed into prediction markets that local regulators say should never have been available in the first place.

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Portugal’s decision to block Polymarket was not sudden or even symbolic. It was a direct response to a platform operating outside the country’s laws. 

 A Well-Known But Unauthorised Platform

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where users bet on real-world outcomes, including political events. While it has gained global attention, Portuguese authorities say it was operating without authorisation. 

The Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) made it clear that only licensed operators can legally offer betting services in Portugal. Unfortunately for bettors, Polymarket did not fall into that category.

Once regulators became aware of the platform’s activity, Polymarket was given 48 hours to cease operations in the country. When access remained available after that deadline, the response escalated, with internet service providers instructed to block the site at a network level.

 Political Betting: Crossing a Legal Line

The bigger issue goes beyond licensing. Political betting is entirely prohibited under Portuguese law. This is not a grey area - it’s a clear legal boundary designed to protect democratic processes from financial influence, speculation, or manipulation.

Prediction markets often position themselves as information tools rather than gambling products. Portugal’s regulator did not accept that “framing”. 

From a legal perspective, betting money on the outcome of an election is still wagering, regardless of whether it is done using cryptocurrency or framed as a market forecast.

Raising Red Flags

What pushed the Polymarket situation from simply being a regulatory concern to an issue that needed to be enforced was the timing. 

With only hours before the official presidential election results were released, more than €4 million was wagered on Polymarket’s Portuguese presidential markets. That spike was highly unusual and instantly raised red flags for officials.

Authorities raised concerns that some bets may have been placed using leaked exit polls or other non-public information. Even the possibility of that being the case was enough to trigger intervention. 

Across the main presidential market, total trading volume exceeded €110 million, placing even more pressure on regulators to take action.

 Portugal is Not Acting Alone

Portugal now joins a growing list of countries restricting Polymarket’s operations. France and Germany have both raised concerns about political betting, while Hungary has already blocked access from local IP addresses as its regulator investigates whether the platform is organising illegal gambling.

These moves point to a broader European discomfort with prediction markets operating in legal spaces. As regulators tighten their grip on online gambling, platforms that blur those lines are set to face increasing resistance.

For Portugal, the message is clear: If a platform is unlicensed, offers prohibited markets, and attracts millions in election-related bets, the door will close quickly.